Current:Home > MyHurricane Idalia's dangers explained: Will forecasters' worst fears materialize?-DB Wealth Institute B2 Expert Reviews
Hurricane Idalia's dangers explained: Will forecasters' worst fears materialize?
View Date:2024-12-23 10:52:29
Hurricane Idalia made landfall Wednesday as one of the more powerful storms in Florida's history, reaching some of the worst case scenarios emergency officials have feared for years but avoiding others.
Idalia was forecast to be a Category 4 storm at landfall, arriving on a full moon when tides are naturally higher and at one of the most dangerous angles to the coast.
Although briefly reaching a Category 4 status as it approached the Florida coast, Idalia's winds dropped to 125 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane at landfall along the Big Bend.
The hurricane center had forecast Idalia to continue strengthening before landfall, however its barometric pressure rose quickly Wednesday morning – from 940 millibars at 6 a.m. to 949 millibars at landfall at 7:45 a.m. The lower the pressure at the center of a storm, the more destructive, so the change likely lessened the damage expected to occur from Idalia's destructive winds.
Idalia text message updates:Sign up to receive text updates on Hurricane Idalia and its aftermath
Timing of tides crucial as Idalia makes landfall
The National Hurricane Center had warned the storm surge could be higher than many single-story buildings, reaching up to 16 feet in the vulnerable Big Bend region if it arrived at high tide. And Idalia's landfall coincided with the full moon happening Wednesday night, so tides were already higher than normal.
The moon's gravitational pull on the Earth's high and low tides is strongest during full and new moons. So storm surge, which piles water on top of the tide, reaches higher levels if it arrives during a full moon.
As a hurricane approaches the coast, water that has been piled up in the center flows outward toward the shore and is blocked by the upward slope of the ocean floor. The surge is when that water level is suddenly forced upward and flows over land and into rivers. A sloping continental shelf along the Gulf of Mexico makes the coastline more vulnerable than the nation's Atlantic coast where steep slopes and a narrower continental shelf allow lower surge levels. And the angle of the Big Ben exacerbates that effect.
Ultimately however, Idalia's landfall occurred closer to low tide, so the flooding is not likely to meet the worst-case scenarios.
Even so, it was apparent by first light that the damage was devastating in many areas — just not as bad as it would have been if the surge pushed ashore when tides were highest. Major flooding occurred in locations along the coast and high water records were broken.
In Cedar Key, the National Weather Service reported a peak surge of 6.79 feet at the gauge, a new record, but lower than forecast if the storm surge arrived at high tide. The previous record – 6.1 feet – was set during Hurricane Hermine in 2016. It wasn't immediately clear how the peak water will compare to the surge forecast. It sometimes takes weather experts weeks to determine the height of the storm surge.
In Steinhatchee, closer to the point of landfall, the tide gauge peaked at 8.03 above the high water mark for the station, almost a foot above the previous record, also set during Hermine.
The next high tides near where the storm came ashore are on Wednesday afternoon.
Flooding is possible all along Idalia's path, with the National Weather Service warning of storm surge along Florida's northeast coast and through the Carolinas.
Why is the northeast Gulf Coast so vulnerable?
The contours of the Gulf of Mexico offshore in the Big Bend region, make it one of the most vulnerable locations to storm surge in the United States, wrote Jeff Masters and Bob Henson with Yale Climate Connections earlier this week. The wide continental shelf with shallow waters offshore allows water being pushed ahead of a hurricane to stack up, the pair wrote.
When Hurricane Dennis, a Category 5 storm, made landfall 150 miles to the west in 2005, the hurricane center reported it trapped a "shelf wave" of higher surge between it and the coast, pushing record high water levels into St. Marks, devastating the small community on the coast and destroying buildings that were never rebuilt.
During Hurricane Hermine, a Category 1 storm, the Gulf surged over seven feet above ground level in the region, Masters and Henson wrote.
Flooding in Charleston, South Carolina on Tuesday night was just a few inches below record flood levels, the weather service said, with much higher tides expected as Idalia arrives. Charleston was feeling the influence of the arriving full moon, as well as the offshore presence of Hurricane Franklin, said meteorologist Steven Taylor.
Storm surge fears in Tampa Bay area
For years, forecasters had feared a massive storm surge pushing into the heavily populated and vulnerable Tampa Bay area, preparing for the worst as Hurricane Ian approached last year. However, with Ian making landfall to the south, water levels dropped in Tampa Bay as Ian arrived.
The area was not as fortunate on Wednesday morning. Water levels jumped nearly five feet higher than yesterday's high tide at a gauge on Tampa Bay in St. Petersburg. Water was pushing into some of the creeks and streams around the bay, which have risen 2-3 feet.
On the Alafia River at Riverview, the surge broke a record set during Hurricane Frances in September 2004 by about 4 inches.
A spotter reported to the weather service that homes were flooding in Port Manatee, Florida.
Record flooding is forecast along the Alafia River, which flows into Tampa Bay, the weather service reported. At 6 a.m. the river level was more than 1.5 feet above flood level and expected to rise several inches above the record flood level set in 2004.
veryGood! (85)
Related
- Melissa Gilbert recalls 'painful' final moment with 'Little House' co-star Michael Landon
- Elon Musk Says Transgender Daughter Vivian Was Killed by Woke Mind Virus
- What time does 'Big Brother' start? New airtimes released for Season 26; see episode schedule
- Wisconsin, in a first, to unveil a Black woman’s statue in its Capitol
- Amazon Black Friday 2024 sales event will start Nov. 21: See some of the deals
- Padres catcher Kyle Higashioka receives replica medal for grandfather’s World War II service
- Florida school board unlikely to fire mom whose transgender daughter played on girls volleyball team
- State election directors fear the Postal Service can’t handle expected crush of mail-in ballots
- Lane Kiffin puts heat on CFP bracket after Ole Miss pounds Georgia. So, who's left out?
- Indiana’s three gubernatorial candidates agree to a televised debate in October
Ranking
- 'He's driving the bus': Jim Harbaugh effect paying dividends for Justin Herbert, Chargers
- Swiss manufacturer Liebherr to bring jobs to north Mississippi
- How the WNBA Olympic break may help rookies Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese
- University system leader will be interim president at University of West Georgia
- RHOBH's Kyle Richards Addresses PK Kemsley Cheating Rumors in the Best Way Possible
- Crowdstrike blames bug for letting bad data slip through, leading to global tech outage
- Fire Once Helped Sequoias Reproduce. Now, it’s Killing the Groves.
- Agreement halts Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ countersuit trial against woman who says he’s her father
Recommendation
-
Why Dolly Parton Is a Fan of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Little Love Affair
-
The Secret Service budget has swelled to more than $3 billion. Here's where the money goes.
-
Karlie Kloss Makes Rare Comment About Taylor Swift After Attending Eras Tour
-
Russia sentences U.S. dual national journalist Alsu Kurmasheva to prison for reporting amid Ukraine war
-
Ariana Grande Shares Dad's Emotional Reaction to Using His Last Name in Wicked Credits
-
Old Navy Jeans Blowout: Grab Jeans Starting at Under $14 & Snag Up to 69% Off Styles for a Limited Time
-
Old Navy Jeans Blowout: Grab Jeans Starting at Under $14 & Snag Up to 69% Off Styles for a Limited Time
-
How historic Versailles was turned into equestrian competition venue for Paris Olympics
Like
- Taylor Swift Becomes Auntie Tay In Sweet Photo With Fellow Chiefs WAG Chariah Gordon's Daughter
- Psst! Madewell’s Sale Has Cute Summer Staples up to 70% Off, Plus an Extra 40% off With This Secret Code
- A sentence change assures the man who killed ex-Saints star Smith gets credit for home incarceration