Current:Home > ScamsHere's why China's population dropped for the first time in decades-DB Wealth Institute B2 Expert Reviews
Here's why China's population dropped for the first time in decades
View Date:2024-12-23 21:56:41
China has recorded its first population decline in decades in what some experts have called a "sea change" for a country intent on growing its economy and increasing its birth rate.
According to data published Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the population of mainland China was 1.411 billion people at the end of 2022, a decrease of 850,000 over the previous year.
Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor of social science at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, told NPR's Morning Edition that the shrinkage could complicate China's plans for continued economic expansion.
"The era of rapid growth, double-digit growth, of cheap labor, of a younger labor force – that era is now really at a close," Gietel-Basten said.
Long the world's most populous country, China could soon see its population surpassed by fast-growing India. In 2022, according to U.N. data, India had a population of 1.4066 billion, just trailing China's 1.4485 billion
The last time China is believed to have seen its population dip was during a tumultuous period known as the Great Leap Forward that began in the late 1950s.
China's infamous one-child policy limited births for decades
China's fertility rates were already decreasing in the 1970s, and by 1980 the Chinese government formally instituted the controversial one-child policy, legally restricting families from having more than one baby. The policy was intended to further limit China's population growth and help stimulate an economic boom.
Ultimately it resulted in low fertility rates and a large aging population. Last year, China saw more deaths than births, according to government data publicized this week. Officials said 10.41 million people died while 9.56 million were born.
In 2015, China ended the one-child policy and began allowing married couples to have two children. It expanded the allowance again in 2021, permitting up to three kids.
Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan, told NPR that China's recent attempts to reverse course and encourage families to have more children haven't worked.
"From my own research, what I've seen is women often resisted and often prioritized their paid employment and prioritized their pursuit of individualistic ideals over this sustained incentivization," Zhou said.
"But since China is an authoritarian country, it remains to be seen just to what extent and how extreme the state will actually go in trying to incentivize births."
Zhou also noted that though the Chinese government has been encouraging married heterosexual couples to have more children, LGBTQ people and unmarried people are often omitted from official policies.
The COVID pandemic also put a strain on China's fertility rate
After COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan, China, the resulting lockdowns across the world caused far-reaching economic pain and social isolation.
That was especially true in China, the world's second-largest economy, where in some cases people were confined to their homes for days or even weeks as strict pandemic lockdowns were instituted to slow the spread of the virus.
Gietel-Basten said China has had to struggle with the economic insecurity caused by the pandemic as well as "the challenges of working from home and having a family under these challenging circumstances, which has been particularly difficult in China."
But he added that China's shrinking population doesn't necessarily mean the country will see its economic growth shrivel.
The government has already been investing in services for its aging population, Gietel-Basten noted, and it will try to increase productivity among the many workers it still has.
"There's really still a lot of levers that can be pulled in China," he said.
Zhou said that if China's population continues to decline and its economy slows, it could lead the country and its leaders to view China's place in the world differently. The government may project an "even more nationalistic imaginary" or, on the other hand, put a renewed emphasis on social stability, she suggested.
"This is truly an open question and truly remains to be seen how the Chinese Communist Party will react," she said. "Although it has been a long time coming, we are on the cusp of a sea change."
veryGood! (277)
Related
- Jerry Jones lashes out at question about sun's glare at AT&T Stadium after Cowboys' loss
- The US is sending a few thousand more troops to the Middle East to boost security
- Martin Short Details Nervous First Day on Only Murders Set with Meryl Streep
- 2024 NBA Media Day: Live updates, highlights and how to watch
- The Best Gifts for People Who Don’t Want Anything
- Identical Twin Influencers Defend Decision to Share Underwear and One Bra
- Man sentenced to nearly 200 years after Indiana triple homicide led to serial killer rumors
- No arrests in South Africa mass shootings as death toll rises to 18
- Why the US celebrates Veterans Day and how the holiday has changed over time
- Maritime historians discover steam tug hidden in Lake Michigan since 1895
Ranking
- Artem Chigvintsev Returns to Dancing With the Stars Ballroom Amid Nikki Garcia Divorce
- Appeal delays $600 million class action settlement payments in fiery Ohio derailment
- Movie armorer’s conviction upheld in fatal ‘Rust’ set shooting by Alec Baldwin
- Police in a cartel-dominated Mexican city are pulled off the streets after army takes their guns
- Powerball winning numbers for Nov. 9 drawing: Jackpot rises to $92 million
- Steward Health Care files a lawsuit against a US Senate panel over contempt resolution
- Man sentenced to nearly 200 years after Indiana triple homicide led to serial killer rumors
- 2024 NBA Media Day: Live updates, highlights and how to watch
Recommendation
-
Federal judge denies request to block measure revoking Arkansas casino license
-
Appeal delays $600 million class action settlement payments in fiery Ohio derailment
-
'Baby Reindeer' had 'major' differences with real-life story, judge says
-
California expands access to in vitro fertilization with new law requiring insurers to cover it
-
Vogue Model Dynus Saxon Charged With Murder After Stabbing Attack
-
NHTSA: Cruise to pay $1.5M penalty after failing to fully report crash involving pedestrian
-
Beyoncé strips down with Levi's for new collab: See the cheeky ad
-
Jay Leno Shares Update 2 Years After Burn Accident and Motorcycle Crash